The Purdue Boilermakers aren’t just the preseason No. 1—they’re the embodiment of quiet dominance. With a 6-0 start and 46 first-place votes in the CBS Sports AP Top 25 updated November 24, 2025, Purdue enters the 2025-26 season as the team to beat. But here’s the twist: they’re not flashy. No NBA lottery picks. No viral dunk reels. Just steady, methodical excellence under head coach Matt Painter, who’s built a program where consistency trumps hype. Since 2015-16, Purdue has never been seeded worse than a 5-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Six times in nine years, they’ve reached the second weekend. In 2024, they were a 1-seed. Last year, they fell as one. And now? They’re back. Again.
Top Four Teams Set the Stage
Behind Purdue, the landscape is a mix of tradition, talent, and tactical evolution. The Arizona Wildcats, fresh off a 6-0 start and 11 first-place votes, are being hailed as the most dangerous defensive force in the country. Analysts at CBS Sports point to their size, depth, and a freshman duo that might be the best in the nation. Then there’s Houston Cougars, who lost just one game and earned four first-place votes. Their path to a national title? A brutal defense and a backcourt led by transfer talent that can outlast anyone. And Duke Blue Devils? They’re the wild card. With the highest offensive efficiency (AdjOE 122.5) and a BartTorvik win probability of .4603, Duke’s roster is a pipeline of elite freshmen and transfers—147 of them, to be exact. But can they hold it together under pressure?Five-Star Talent and Unexpected Turnarounds
Look no further than Louisville Cardinals. One year after going 8-24, they’re now ranked #13 on ESPN’s Bilas Index, thanks to head coach Pat Kelsey and five-star recruit Mikel Brown Jr., a 6-4 guard projected as a top-five NBA draft pick. Brown isn’t just a scorer—he’s the complete package, and his presence transforms Louisville from a rebuilding team into a Final Four contender. Meanwhile, BYU Cougars added explosive 6-9 wing AJ Dybantsa, a potential No. 1 draft pick, along with transfers who averaged over 16 points per game. They’re not just improving—they’re redefining.Bold Predictions That Defy Logic
Let’s talk about the underdogs. Washington Huskies, who finished last in the Big Ten last season and were picked 11th in the preseason poll, are now projected to crack the Top 25. How? A new system. Better recruiting. And a coaching staff that’s finally clicking. Analysts at CBBReview.com say it’s possible—because history shows champions don’t always stay champions. Baylor, Kansas, and UConn all won titles in recent years… then lost in the Round of 32 the next season. The cycle resets. And Washington? They’re betting on it. Then there’s Miami Hurricanes. They went 7-24 last year. Their legendary coach, Jim Larrañaga, retired midseason. Now, they’ve hired Jai Lucas, former Duke offensive coordinator, and added transfers from Michigan and Indiana. BartTorvik projects them at 19-11. EvanMiya ranks them 36th. But here’s the catch: they’re not supposed to be good. And that’s exactly why they might surprise everyone.
The Analytics Behind the Madness
BartTorvik.com’s 2026 T-Rank projections don’t lie. Duke leads the nation in offensive efficiency (AdjOE 122.5) and win probability (.4603). But they’re not alone. Missouri State and Cornell are both ranked in the top 170 despite being in mid-major conferences. Why? They’ve mastered the transfer portal and defensive adjustments. Meanwhile, the bottom feeders—Chicago State, Bellarmine, Canisius, and Cal State Fullerton—are stuck in a cycle of low efficiency and poor depth. The gap between elite and bottom-tier has never been wider.Opening Night and Tournament Projections
The season kicks off with marquee matchups: Florida vs. Arizona in Las Vegas, Texas vs. Duke in Charlotte, and BYU vs. Villanova. These aren’t just games—they’re statement pieces. ESPN’s Bracketology projects Purdue, Arizona, Houston, and Duke as 1-seeds. Louisville sits at #5. And in the championship game? Analysts Matt Norlander and David Parrish on CBS Sports’ mega-preview didn’t hesitate: Houston over Michigan. Why? Depth. Defense. And a coaching staff that’s been waiting for this moment.
What’s at Stake?
This season isn’t just about who wins the title. It’s about whether tradition can survive the transfer portal. Whether analytics can outpace recruiting hype. Whether a team like Purdue—without the star power of Duke or the flashy recruits of Arizona—can still dominate through culture and coaching. And it’s about whether a program like Washington, written off before the season even started, can prove that in college basketball, the best teams aren’t always the ones you expect.Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Purdue considered the favorite despite lacking NBA lottery picks?
Purdue’s success stems from coach Matt Painter’s system of player development, retention, and disciplined execution. Unlike programs that rely on one-and-done recruits, Purdue builds depth through transfers and four-year players. Their consistency since 2015-16—never seeded worse than a 5-seed in the NCAA Tournament—shows their model works. They don’t need lottery picks; they need execution, and they’ve mastered it.
Can Houston really win the national title over Duke and Arizona?
Yes, if their defense holds up. Houston’s front line is among the tallest and most physical in the country, and their guards can disrupt passing lanes like few others. Analysts at CBS Sports believe their defensive versatility gives them an edge in tournament play, where pace slows and spacing matters. Duke’s offense is elite, but Houston’s ability to limit possessions and force turnovers could be the difference in a close Final Four game.
Why is Louisville suddenly a contender after an 8-win season?
Head coach Pat Kelsey brought in elite transfer talent and landed five-star recruit Mikel Brown Jr., who’s projected as a top-five NBA draft pick. His ability to create mismatches and defend multiple positions transformed Louisville’s identity. The team’s 19-win turnaround is the largest in recent NCAA history, and their depth—especially in the backcourt—makes them dangerous in March.
How accurate are BartTorvik’s projections compared to traditional rankings?
BartTorvik’s T-Rank uses advanced metrics like adjusted offensive/defensive efficiency and win probability against average opponents, making it more predictive than polls or media rankings. Teams like Missouri State and Cornell, ranked in the top 170 despite being mid-majors, are undervalued by traditional outlets. The model has correctly predicted tournament upsets in 7 of the last 9 years, making it a trusted tool for serious analysts.
What’s the biggest surprise team to watch this season?
Washington Huskies. Ranked 40th-50th nationally by analytics, picked 11th in the Big Ten, and coming off a last-place finish, they’ve quietly improved their defense, added three impactful transfers, and are playing with house money. If their guards stay healthy, they could crack the Top 15 by February and earn a 10-seed in the NCAA Tournament—a scenario no one saw coming.
Will the transfer portal change how champions are crowned?
Absolutely. Teams like Louisville, BYU, and Miami are now built around transfers, not recruits. The best teams aren’t just the ones with the most talent—they’re the ones that integrate new players fastest. Purdue’s model of retention is rare now. The future belongs to coaches who can manage chemistry under pressure, not just recruit stars. That’s why Houston and Duke, both stacked with transfers, are the favorites.